基于多变量灰色模型的R D投入目标强度预测研究

摘要

R&D 投入是测度一个国家或地区R&D 活动规模、评价其科技创新和竞争能力的重要指标。采用多变量灰色模型（Multi-variable grey model）-MGM (1，n)对我国未来R&D 投入目标强度进行预测，并提出确保目标强度实现的相关对策措施，为我国未来科技管理提供理论依据和实证支持。%R&D expenditure is an important index to evaluate R&D scale and innovation ability. Some R&D activities targets were not achieved successfully in the 11th Five-Year-Plan Period. During the 12th Five-Year-Plan Period,it’s important to distribute and use R&D capital rationally in the context of shortage in S&T source. The paper evaluates the performance of our country’s R&D input on base of SFA model from 2002 to 2008. Study shows that our country’s R&D efficiency is raising,but it's very evident in different areas, and the promoting space of R&D efficiency is large. At the same time, there's not clear promoting effect that the government R&D finance and human capital affect R&D efficiency. With improving the R&D efficiency, we should put emphasis on the R&D input ways and means, ensuring and controlling system, R&D cooperation and so on.