河北省城镇职工养老保险基金缺口现状与趋势分析

摘要

According to the sixth census data ,and using the method of queue elements, through the age changes, forecasting the population size and structure of Hebei Province in 2011-2030.Then using the actuarial model of general method, according to the related data, figuring out fund income and expenditure scale of Hebei Province in 2011-2030. Excluding government financial subsidies, founding that pension insurance fund gap of Hebei Province begin to appear, and become more and more big. The next stage, the government in Hebei shall strengthen the management of town worker pension insurance fund from aspects of finance, income, personal accounts, and investment channel.%采用队列要素法并根据第六次人口普查数据，通过年龄变动情况，预测了2011-2030年河北省人口规模及结构，然后采用总体法精算模型，根据河北省城镇职工基本养老保险相关数据，测算出2011-2030年河北省城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支规模。发现在剔除政府财政补贴后，河北省城镇职工养老保险基金缺口开始逐渐出现，并且越来越大。下一阶段，河北省政府需从财政、收入、个人账户、投资渠道四个方面加强对城镇职工养老保险基金的管理。