货币冲销能力与人民币区域货币锚效应

摘要

本文基于费雪方程式，建立冲销能力与经济规模的理论模型，并利用1993~2010年间的面板数据进行分析。研究结果表明，经济规模越大，冲销能力越强。在东亚区域中，中国具有明显的大国效应，冲销能力强于东亚小国，这种冲销能力的不同能够保证人民币升值带动东亚货币集体升值。结合人民币货币锚理论，人民币可以成为区域货币的“隐性锚”。%Based on Fisher equation, the paper builds the theoretical model of sterilization ability and economy scale,and then uses the panel data among 1993 to 2010 to do analysis. We found that the larger the scale of economy, the stronger the sterilization ability. In the East Asia, China has the obvious big-country effect. Its sterilization ability is stronger than small countries in East Asia. This difference of sterilization ability can make Renminbi appreciation bring all the currency in East Asia appreciation together. In consideration of currency anchor effect, Renminbi can become the“implicit anchor” of East Asia currency.