基于离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络的空战威胁估计

摘要

对空战中目标的各个特征因素进行了分析,建立了空战目标威胁估计的离散模糊动态贝叶斯网络模型,并利用离散动态贝叶斯网络的直接推理算法进行了仿真计算.仿真结果表明,该方法得到的推理结果与理论分析完全一致,而且能够将各种并不显著的特征因素进行综合,使得各个特征因素间及不同时间片的同一特征因素相互修正补充.为空战威胁估计提供了一种有效而准确的方法.%A more effective and accurate method for threat assessment in air combat is presented in this paper. Based on the analysis of the characteristics concerning air target, the discrete fuzzy dynamic Bayesian network for threat assessment in air combat is established. According to the direct calculation inference algorithm for discrete dynamic Bayesian network, relevant simulation is conducted. The simulation results demonstrate that the inference results are consistent with the theoretical analysis. This method is proved to have the capability to integrate various obscure target characteristics to make them conspicuous as a whole. Moreover, the values of the same characteristic at different instants could also reinforce and modify each other.