The effectiveness evaluation model is established in application to the simulation of BVR (Beyond Visual Range) air fleet combat.In this model, the characteristics of BVR air combat are analyzed first. And the analytic expression for calculating the airplane loss is gained after the detailed study of three instances of the stochastic case of missile lead up launch in accordance with the typical time sequence of missile attack. Then lead up launch condition in BVR air combat is discussed and calculation method of lead launch probability is presented. Finally, an analysis is given mainly to the lead up launch, the influential factors of lead up launch area as well as the impact that the airplane flexibility has on the air combat.%针对超视距机群空战仿真的应用场合,建立了一种超视距机群空战的效能评估模型.该模型首先通过分析超视距空战的特点,在导弹攻击典型时间序列的基础上,对抢先发射导弹这一随机事件分三种情况进行了具体研究,得出计算飞机损失数的解析表达式.然后讨论了超视距空战中抢先情况的条件,提出了抢先概率的计算方法.最后着重对抢先发射、抢先发射区域的影响因素以及飞机机动性对空战结果的影响进行了分析.
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