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基于不确定度的专家评价综合方法

     

摘要

针对群决策中专家评价信息的综合处理问题,应用多位专家评价的评价样本不确定度,提出了基于不确定度的数据综合处理方法.该方法能够有效应用于群决策问题,尤其是参与决策人员(专家)较多时,出现专家相对权重可信度不明确而导致评价准确度低的问题,科学地简化了群决策中专家权重的确定过程,便于应用,具有坚实的理论依据和应用价值.通过算例分析,该方法的有效性得到了验证.%It is one of the most important keys that how to process assessment values of all experts in group decision-making. Weight synthetic analysis methods of experts have been presented to solve the question. But, in practices* some defects of these methods have been founded, especially exceeding 7 experts. For example, partial assessment information of experts group are ignored, and the accuracy of expert weight is ill-defined. Based on uncertainty theory, a novel method for processing assessment data is put forward. In the method, firstly, according to assessment data of experts, uncertainty of each attribute is calculated, including absolute uncertainty degree and relative uncertainty degree, secondly, uncertainty degree coefficient of each attribute is gotten, lastly, based on assessment mean and uncertainty, synthetic assessment datum of each attribute is computed. According to the example in this paper, validity of the method is validated.

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