一种改进的证据组合规则在可靠性评估中的应用

摘要

对许多长寿产品进行可靠性评估时,客观实验数据往往难以获取.在试验数据短缺的情况下,就要正确处理专家经验和对相似产品的可靠性认识等不确定信息.为了有效合理地利用这些不确定信息,提出了一种基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论(DST)的可靠性评估方法,针对传统证据理论在处理冲突证据时的不足,用加权证据方法对其组合规则进行了修正.算例实验表明了该方法在有“干扰证据”存在的情况下评估结果的有效性和合理性.%For many high-reliability products, it is difficult to obtain their objective experimental data, but expert experience and the knowledge of the similar products' reliability show their advantage in this case. In order to express and apply the uncertain information better,this paper presents a new reliability assessment method based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST). DST involves counter-intuitive behaviors when evidence highly con?icts. A new approach of combination of weighted evidence is proposed ?to solve the problem. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach when there is "noisy evidence".