记录值样本下Burr Ⅻ模型的Bayes可靠性分析

摘要

针对记录值失效数据情形,研究了Burr Ⅻ分布的可靠性分析问题.基于Bayes理论分别在对称和非对称损失下获得了Burr Ⅻ分布可靠性指标的计算公式.针对超参数未知情形,利用一种新方法确定了超参数的值.结合Monte-Carlo模拟方法给出一个数值算例,并研究了估计结果的精确性.结果表明,此计算方法具有可信的计算精度,符合工程实际,有一定的实际应用价值.%The reliability assessment in the case of records data is derived for Burr XII model based on Bayes theory by using symmetric and asymmetric loss function. With respect to the value of the unknown hyperparameter, a new approach is utilized to estimate the hyperparameter. Finally, a numerical example is presented by using Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation result shows that, the estimate reliability performances accord with the practical application, also has the certain promotion application value.