装甲装备周转备件需求最优组合预测

摘要

针对单项统计预测模型存在的不足,提出采用组合预测方法进行周转备件需求预测的观点,并建立了周转备件需求最优组合预测模型.首先,介绍了组合预测的基本原理和常用的周转备件单项预测方法.在综合权衡预测结果精度和稳健性的前提下,建立了基于预测误差绝对值和最小的周转备件最优组合预测模型,并给出了确定各加权系数和预测评价效果的方法.最后,结合案例验证了该组合预测方法的有效性和优越性.%Aiming at shortage of monomial statistic forecasting model, a point was presented that combination forecasting method is adopted to forecast turnover parts demand in this paper, and optimal combination forecasting model is founded. Firstly, the paper introduces basic principles of combination forecasting and common monomial statistic forecasting model. On the basis of forecasting result precision and steadiness the optimal combination forecasting model is founded based on forecasting error absolute value and minimal turnover parts, and these methods are presented that can confirm evevy weighting coefficient and forecast evaluation result. Finally,its validity and superionty are tested by the combination with the cases.