基于系统维修作业流程的维修时间MC仿真

摘要

Monte carlo simulation method is used to determine maintenance time during maintenance decision modeling in this article. By analysis the system maintenance work procedure,the system maintenance time calculation mode is constructed. For the three types of basic maintenance work relationship,maintenance time calculation mode of maintenance event is presented. Given these maintenance work procedure relation models,the MC simulation algorism flow is given out to produce the expected system maintenance time,and the distribution characteristic of it is by statistical frequency. Finally,a kind of inertial navigation turn backup on board equipment is used to verify the simulation model,result of which show that MC simulation method provides an effective approach for calculating the maintenance time for maintenance decision.%将MC(Monte Carlo)仿真用于维修决策中维修时间的确定，通过系统维修作业流程分析，构建了系统维修时间计算模型，对于基本维修作业三种类型分别构建了维修事件的维修时间计算模型，基于维修作业关系模型和这些计算模型给出了采用MC仿真的算法流程，通过统计得到系统维修时间期望和分布特征。最后以某型惯导转备份机载设备故障维修为例对模型进行了验证，仿真表明。采用MC仿真的方法能够为维修决策提供一种有效的维修时间确定途径。