非致命武器研制风险的GERT网络模型分析

摘要

非致命武器研制中各种不确定因素导致其项目风险的存在，为度量项目的风险值，构建出了基于WBS的非致命武器研制项目的GERT网络模型，分别采用解析法和蒙特卡洛仿真法对项目进度风险进行了求解。实例分析表明，两种方法的求解结果十分吻合，所提方法可为非致命武器研制风险的管控提供决策参考。%The uncertain factors in research and development of non-lethal weapons cause the risk,in order to measure the item risk,the GERT network model of non-lethal weapons research and development item based on WBS is constructed,separately used the analytic method and Monte Carlo simulation method to seek the schedule risk. Example shows that result of two methods match well with each other,the method can be used to provide reference for managing and controlling the risk of developing of non-lethal weapons.