可变模糊优选模型的反TBM战斗部研制风险综合评价

摘要

According to the development characteristics of anti-TBM warhead,the comprehensive evaluation index system of anti-TBM warhead development risk is established. Quantitative index will be uniformly quantified by introducing utility function,the qualitative index with Expert evaluation method is established. On the basis of it,a model of synthetic evaluation for developing risk of anti-TBM warhead is put forward based on the variable fuzzy optimization model,which realize the evaluation for the superior and interior of developing plan by calculating and comparing the measure of all plans. The accuracy of the model is proved through an example.%依据反TBM导弹战斗部研制的特点，建立了反TBM战斗部研制风险综合评价指标体系。引入了效用函数对定量评价指标进行统一量化，采用专家评估法对定性指标进行了量化。在此基础上，提出了一种基于可变模糊优选模型的反TBM导弹战斗部研制风险综合评估方案，该模型通过计算各方案的测度并进行比较，实现对战斗部研制风险方案的优劣性的综合评价，通过算例分析，验证了模型的合理性。