飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率计算方法

摘要

In view of the problems of falling point probability calculating difficultly of the failure missile in flight test,five failure modes are put forward by fault analysis for subsystems of failure missile,a probability calculating model of probability distribution based on series system principles is built,Then the simulation model is built by analyzing the phases for launch,flight and falling. Finally,The falling point distribution for failure missile is given by using Monte Carlo method.%针对飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率难以准确计算的问题，通过分析导弹的各个分系统的故障机理重新提出五种故障模式，依据逐系统串联的原理建立了故障模式的概率分配计算模型；在对发射、飞行和故障后坠落等阶段进行分析的基础上建立各故障模式的仿真模型；最后应用蒙特卡洛方法对某型导弹故障飞行落点的概率分布进行了仿真计算。