正确认识、预测、引导和处理舆情对公众的影响,对社会稳定有重大的现实意义.通过综合运用多Agent和动力学微分方程的思路建立模型,结合社会人群中个体的行为规律,重点描述个体的行为细节和交互规则,构建了自下而上的舆情演化模型,并模拟广场"自焚"事件在网络上的传播,对模型进行了实证研究,验证了模型的有效性,运用NetLogo软件进行数值仿真,得到了舆情演化的规律,进而提出相应的对策建议.%If the impacts of public opinion upon the public are understood,predicted,guided and processed correctly,it has great realistic significance to social stability. A model is constructed with the application of multi-agent and dynamics. To be specific,a down-top public opinion evolution model is built according to the rules of individual behaviors among social groups,for the purpose of describing individuals'behavioral details and interactive rules. Moreover,an empirical study on the model is conducted by simulating the transmission of the "Square Self-burning Event"on the Internet to test the model's validity. Software Netlogo is used for numerical simulation,reaching the rules of public opinion evolution. Finally,corresponding proposals are made.
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