基于灰色加权马尔科夫的部队集成训练效果预测

摘要

Aiming at the error of GM (1,1) prediction model,the integrated training effect prediction model is established by using the weighted Markov method based on GM(1,1) model in this paper.In this model,the Markov state is dividing on the errors in GM (1,1) model,and then the prediction result is improved by using the weighted Markov method.The example result analysis shows that the algorithm of this model is more simpler,and the training effect prediction veracity is more accurate,and this model can provide the powerful date support for battle-focused training.%针对GM(1,1)预测模型误差较大的问题,在GM(1,1)模型的基础上引入加权马尔科夫模型构建了部队集成训练效果预测模型.该模型以GM(1,1)模型存在的预测残差作为划分马尔科夫状态的依据,通过加权处理对预测结果进行修正.实例分析结果表明,该模型算法简单,易于实现,可以较大地提高部队训练效果预测精度,为部队开展科学有效的实战化训练提供了有力的数据支撑.