基于年龄更换策略的威布尔分布备件需求计算方法

摘要

备件需求量预测在装备保障工作中发挥着重要作用.预防性维修可以消除装备潜在的故障或避免装备发生故障后所导致的严重后果,从而使装备始终处于期望状态.预防性维修策略下备件需求量建模能够以可预见的可靠性数据为基础进行,其关键问题是最佳更换间隔时间的确定.针对威布尔分布装备备件,采用年龄更换策略,确定最佳更换间隔时间,并在此基础上导出威布尔型备件需求计算模型,为备件需求量的预测提供了一种简单有效的方法.%Spare parts demand forecast plays an important role in equipment support. Preventive maintenance can eliminate the potential failure of equipment or avoid the serious consequences caused by the failure,so that the equipment is always in a desired state. The modeling of spare parts demand can be processed under the preventive maintenance strategy based on the predictable reliability data, the key problem of which is the determination of the optimum replacement interval. In this paper,a computing model is developed to forecast spare parts demands on the basis of optimum replacement interval using age replacement policy for Weibull distribution equipment. It provides a simple and effective method for the prediction of spare parts demand.