新兴经济体跨国风险传染效应的实证研究

摘要

This paper made a research on the cross-border risk infection effect of emerging economics. According to the time-varying correlated bivariate normal Copula function, the author built price infection index and output infection index so as to build the related panel vector autoregression model. The result showed that the capital account opening had the positive effect on the price infection index. The more open capital account, price effect of risk infection the more significant was. However, the price infection index had little effect on the capital account open and kept on an unsteady level. The output effect of risk infection from capital account open was not significant from beginning to end.%研究新兴经济体的跨国风险传染效应。通过时变相关的二元正态Copula函数构造了价格传染指数和产出传染指数，建立价格传染和产出传染的面板向量自回归模型。研究发现，资本账户开放冲击对价格传染指数具有正向的影响，资本账户越开放，风险传染的价格效应越显著。价格传染指数对资本账户开放的冲击反应很小，而且不稳定，资本账户开放所具有的风险传染的产出效应自始至终都不明显。