山西省阳城县经济发展与环境污染的相互关系

摘要

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假设,选取山西省阳城县1991年-2008年经济和环境的统计数据,运用SPSS和EXCEL软件,定量分析阳城县经济发展与环境污染的相互关系,并建立阳城县经济增长与主要工业污染物排放的计量模型。结果表明：阳城县人均GDP污染物排放模型不完全具有EKC曲线的典型特征。主要污染物中只有工业COD排放量与人均GDP的关系曲线符合倒U型,具有典型的EKC曲线特征。工业废水排放量和工业SO2排放量呈现倒N型波动的EKC特征,出现该情况可能与阳城县产业结构的调整有关。工业固体废物和工业废气曲线仍处于上升期,尚未达到环境趋好的转折点。结论建议：阳城县在建设环境友好城市的过程中,应制定科学的区域性环境与产业政策,进一步优化产业结构,加大环保投入,使阳城县的EKC平稳地实现转折。%According to the hypothesis of Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC), this paper takes the economic and environmental statistics from 1991 to 2008 in Yangcheng Country of Shanxi Province as the example in a bid to analyze the relationships between e- conomic development and environmental pollution quantitatively, with SPSS and EXCEL software as well as to set up a computational model for the growth rate of economy and industrial pollutants discharge quantity. Results show that the per person GDP pollutant discharge model in Yangcheng County does not correspond perfectly with the characteristics of EKC curve. Only industrial COD dis- charge and per person GDP presents typical characteristics of EKC curve. Industrial wastewater and SO2 discharge quantity shows an N - shaped fluctuation, which may led by industrial structural reform in the county. The curves for industrial solid waste and waste gases are on the rise, far from reaching the turning point. It is concluded that Yangeheng County should put forward regional envi- ronmental and industrial policies so as to perfect the industrial structure and boost the smooth transform of EKC.