1960年-2014年天山北麓气温和降水变化趋势及预测研究

摘要

利用天山北麓17个气象站点1960年-2014年的气温和降水资料,采用Morlet小波分析、R/S分析等,研究了天山北麓气温和降水的时间变化.结果表明,(1)天山北麓年平均气温和年降水量分别以0.035℃/a和0.881 mm/a的倾向率呈上升趋势;季节变化明显;(2)年平均气温和年降水量有明显的周期性,年平均气温在55 a尺度内存在13 a的强显著周期,年降水量在55 a尺度内存在8 a的强显著周期.(3)未来一段时间内,天山北麓气温和降水均呈上升趋势,且与过去的变化趋势持续性较强.%Using the air temperature data and precipitation data during 1960-2014 collected from 17 meteorological sites in the northern region of TianShan Mountains, the time variation direction of air temperature and precipitation were analyzed by using of the linear trend estimation method and Morlet wavelet analysis methodas well as the correlation analysis. The main results are as follows:(1)Over the past 55 years, the tendency of annual average temperature and annual precipitation at 0. 035℃/a and 0. 881 mm/a showed an increasing trend in the northern region of Tianshan Mountains. The seasonal variation showed that the tempera-ture and precipitation in the four seasons are all increased, of which the largest increase in autumn temperatures and in winter pre-cipitation. (2) The annual average temperature and the annual precipitation demonstrate the obvious periodical variations. The temperature in the scale of 55 a memory in 13 a strong significant period, and the annual precipitation in the scale of 55 a memory in 8 a strong significant period. (3)In the next period of time, the temperature and precipitation in the northern foot of Tianshan Mountains are on the rise.