我国煤炭价格波动影响因素实证研究

摘要

Coal plays a decisive role in China's energy market.As a special indicator,coal price changes not only reflect the supply and demand in the coal market,but also reflect the operation of China's energy market and even the entire national economy.In this paper,a qualitative and quantitative combination of stepwise regression analysis of the factors that affect coal prices conducted an empirical study shows that coal production,coal import and export,downstream industrial output and international oil prices are the main factors that affect China's coal price fluctuations,based on the research conclusions,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed for reference.%煤炭在我国能源结构中始终占有举足轻重的地位,煤炭价格作为一个特殊的指标,其不仅反映了煤炭市场的供求状况,也反映了中国能源市场甚至整个国民经济的运行状况.本文定性与定量相结合,运用逐步回归法,实证了煤炭产量、煤炭进出口、下游产业产品产量以及国际石油价格等影响因素对我国煤炭价格的影响程度,并基于研究结论提出了相应的对策建议.