编队对地攻击作战的效能评估中,由于忽略不确定因素的影响,往往给评估结果造成较大误差.针对编队对地攻击作战效能评估中不确定因素的影响,提出一种基于扩展贝叶斯网络作战效能评估方法；分析了编队对地攻击中的不确定因素,根据不确定因素的特点,结合灰色模糊综合评判理论处理不确定因素的优势和贝叶斯网络在推理上的优点,提出扩展贝叶斯网络模型,该模型利用模糊理论处理不确定性的优势,将不确定因素转换为概率问题；结合贝叶斯网络较强的推理能力,综合评估编队对地突防、攻击作战效能,有效地解决了不确定因素的影响.仿真实例证明了该方法的实用性和有效性.%In current effectiveness evaluation of aircraft formation in ground target attacking, uncertain factors are often overlooked, which may result in large error. Taking the influence of uncertain factors into consideration, we proposed a method based on extended Bayesian networks for operational effectiveness evaluation of ground target attacking. The uncertain factors of ground attacking were analyzed, a model of extended Bayesian networks was put forward, combining the advantages of grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory and of Bayesian Networks. The model could transform the uncertain factors into a probability problem by using the advantage of fuzzy theory in dealing with uncertainty. Then, by using the strong reasoning ability of Bayesian network, the effectiveness of aircraft formation in ground target attacking and penetration was evaluated. Thus the problem of uncertain factor influence was solved. Simulation proved the practicability and effectiveness of the method.
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