趋势线寿命评估方法的理论模型研究

摘要

This paper focuses on the foreign theoretical models of trendline life assessment methods. Based on the basic concepts of tolerance intervals, tolerance limits, tolerance interval and limit of normal population, the established theoretical model is derived. On this basis, the regression model is improved in order to increase the prediction accuracy. Considering the actual situation, the improved regression model is discussed, the rationality of using a linear regression model as a trendline life assessment method is proved. Finally, taking a certain primer as an example for calculation, the result shows that the storage life of the primer is approximately 22 years.%对国外趋势线寿命评估方法的理论模型进行了研究，结合容忍区间与容忍限、正态总体的容忍区间与容忍限等基本概念，推导了该方法所建立的理论模型。在此基础上，为提高预测精度，修改了回归模型，并结合解决问题的实际情况，对改进后的回归模型进行讨论，确定了趋势线寿命评估方法使用一元线性回归模型的合理性。最后以某底火为例进行了实例计算，得出该底火的寿命约为22年。