天基对地武器体系贡献度评估建模与仿真

摘要

阐述了体系贡献度的概念内涵,针对当前体系贡献度评估方法的缺陷,通过研究体系作战下的天基对地武器攻防对抗能力及其对作战结果的影响作用,构建天基对地武器体系贡献度评估指标体系;对于数学含义明确的指标,建立相应的数学量化模型,对于数学含义不明确的指标,提出了一种基于模糊综合的证据推理方法进行评估;建立典型天基对地武器作战体系,针对不同的作战模式,仿真分析天基对地武器的作战过程,进行天基对地武器体系贡献度的评估和分析.仿真结果表明,所建立天基对地武器体系贡献度指标体系完善合理,在所给定的作战体系中可有效地评估天基对地武器的体系贡献度,结果可靠有效.%The concept of system-of-systems contribution is studied.To overcome the shortcomings of current methods for system contribution evaluation,the evaluation index system of the system contribution of space-based weapons is developed through the study on offensive and defensive capabilities of space-based weapons and their influence on the operation results.The quantitative mathematical model is built for the index with clear mathematical meanings.An evidential reasoning method based on fuzzy synthesis is proposed to evaluate the index with uncertain mathematical meanings.A typical space-based weapon combat system is developed,and the combat process of space-based weapons is analyzed by simulation for different operation modes,thus to evaluate the contribution of the weapons.The simulation results show that the index system for the contribution of space-based weapons is effective.It can successfully evaluate the system contribution of space-based weapons for a given combat system,and the result is reliable.