中国经济增长率健康运行区间的测算

摘要

国民经济要实现健康发展,就应该在健康区间运行.然而中国经济健康运行区间的具体数值在理论上没有定论,在实践上更是关注较少.文章剔除不健康增长年份的数据,运用区间估计和随机变参数系统的状态空间模型,首次测算了在避免恶性膨胀和通货紧缩、满足就业需求、可持续性和环境约束的条件下,2020年前中国经济健康的最理想增长率为8.91%,经济健康增长率区间为[7.83%,9.99%].科学测算我国经济的健康运行区间,对我国实现和谐、健康的可持续发展具有重大的理论意义和实践价值.%It should run in the health range if national economy achieve the healthy development,however,not only it has not been conclusion that the specific range of china’s economic healthy development but also it is less concern in practice. Firstly,the paper eliminates data of the healthy growth by using the interval estimation and state space model of random vari⁃able parameter system,then the paper estimates that the most ideal growth rate of the Chinese economy is 8.91%,and healthy economic growth rate interval is [7.83%,9.99%] before 2020,under the condition of avoiding malignant inflation and defla⁃tion,conforming to the employment needs,sustainability and environmental constraints.It is significant both in theory and practice to realize the harmonious,healthy and sustainable development that the scientific measurement of the health interval of China’s economy.