中国产业结构、能源效率与能源消费的动态关系--基于协整与VECM的实证研究

摘要

Under the dual backgrounds of structure transformation and energy conservation and emissions reduction, the dy-namic relationship among energy consumption, industrial structure and energy efficiency is worthy of attention. The VECM is constructed to study the dynamic interactions of energy consumption,industrial structure and energy efficiency based on the re-lated data from the year of 1952 to 2012 in China. The study shows that the changes in energy consumption and industrial struc-ture present a positive correlation in the long run, which indicates that the development of the second and tertiary industries has a significant impact on the increase of energy consumption, and is of extensive features. The changes in energy efficiency and energy consumption demonstrate a reverse movement in characteristics,which illustrates that the improvement of energy ef-ficiency can play a certain role in the reduction of energy consumption in the long term. However,the magnitude of changes in energy consumption is significantly less than that in energy efficiency,China’s energy consumption exists rebound effect based on the improvement of energy efficiency.%在结构转型和节能减排双重背景下，能源消费、产业结构和能源效率的动态关系值得关注。文章基于我国1952-2012年的相关数据，通过构建误差修正模型（VECM）来研究能源消费、产业结构和能源效率三者之间的动态影响。研究发现，从长期来看，能源消费和产业结构的变动呈现正向关系，表明第二、三产业的发展对能源消费的增加影响显著，且具有粗放特征；能源效率和能源消费的变动呈现反向变动特征，说明能源效率的提升在长期对能源消费的减少起到了一定作用，但是能源消费的变动幅度明显小于能源效率的变动幅度，我国的能源消费存在基于能效提升的回弹效应。