Study on the Traffic Energy System Model in Urumqi Based on Scenario Analysis Methods

摘要

In this study, a traffic energy system model is developed to optimize the traffic system cost of Urumqi, considering energy consumption, pollution emission and travel time. Meanwhile, scenario analysis method is proposed to solve the problem of the extreme weather of traffic, and three scenarios (i.e. 10%, 20% and 30%) of reductions of traffic flow quantity and pollutant emission are examined. The results demonstrate that the medium-type coach will be the promising selection under different scenarios especially in the extreme conditions and the traffic flow reduction scenarios are not the better option for the decision owing to the same cost under the different reduction levels. Moreover, encouraging the medium-type coach traveling and restricting the small vehicle driving would be attractive alternatives for the extreme situation. The proposed model would provide reasonable references for decision makers.