房地产价格调控下的产能过剩宏观经济风险研究——基于投入产出价格影响模型的分析

摘要

长期以来,制造业产能过剩问题掣肘我国宏观经济平稳运行,而多数产能过剩行业与房地产业存在密切的关系.本文以房地产价格调控为着眼点,基于2007年42部门投入产出数据,利用投入产出价格影响模型,分析房地产对产能过剩乃至宏观经济的价格传导路径,以期通过传导机制减轻产能过剩引发的宏观风险.%For a long time,the overcapacity problem of manufacturing industry impedes the smooth operation of China's macro-economy,while the majority of industry overcapacity closely related to real estate industry. For this reason,this paper focuses on price adjustment of real estate,bases on 42 departments input-output data of 2007,and uses the input-output price effect model to analyze the price transmission path of excess capacity and macro economic,in order to reduce the risk caused by excess capacity through the transmission mechanism.