一种认知行为模式的概率化确定方法

摘要

The determination of cognitive behavior mode (CBM) is studied and a probabilistic method to determine CBM is proposed. Firstly, the SRK framework of CBM is introduced briefly. Characteristics of three CBM types (skill-based,rule-based and knowledge-based) are analyzed. The applications of SRK framework in human reliability analysis (HRA) are reviewed. Secondly, the CBM determination method, Hanaman decision tree, is outlined, which strengths and weaknesses are respectively pointed out. It is emphasized that it is extremely necessary to consider uncertainties in the CBM determination process. Thirdly, the uncertainties are categorized into four groups, which are crew, system, task and environment.On the basis of this taxonomy, the influence factors of CBM in Hanaman decision tree are analyzed, and their uncertainties resources are presented. Lastly, the probability is introduced into the CBM determination and a new method to determine CBM is constructed, in which the probability and Hanaman decision tree are synthesized. Because this method has considered uncertainties in the CBM determination process, it has more extensive application in HRA.%研究认知行为模式的确定,提出一种认知行为模式的概率化确定方法,首先,简要介绍认知行为模式的SRK框架,分析三种认知行为模式的特点以及该框架在人因可靠性分析中的应用,然后,概述认知行为模式的确定方法-Hanaman决策树,分析该方法的特点以及存在的不足,强调在认知行为模式的确定过程中考虑不确定性的必要性.随后,将不确定性的来源分为4类:人直、系统、任务和环境,并以此为给出Hanaman决策树中认知行为模式影响因素的不确定性来源.最后,将概率的思想引入到认知行为模式的确定中,结合Hanaman决策树,构建一种认知行为模式的概率化确定方法.该方法考虑认知行为模式影响因素的不确定性,因而具有更加广泛的适用性.