基于隶属函数的骆岗机场新型大雾预报方法

摘要

准确预报大雾对机场减少航班大面积延误和旅客滞留有重要意义。本文阐述一种适用于机场的大雾短时预报方法。通过选取骆岗机场历史地面逐时观测气象资料,依据气温趋势不同类型,运用模糊隶属度与发生条件概率模型,分别建立短时大雾的预报方法。利用 VC++程序开发了骆岗机场大雾短时预报软件,可扩展硬件构建实时预警系统。使用2011年地面资料检验结果显示：对未来3小时大雾预报准确率为91.3%,TS评分为0.84。因此,本文提出的大雾短时预报方法在骆岗机场附近3小时大雾预报中是有效的。%Fog short-term accurate forecasting is very important and practical to airport which can help reduce flight de-lays and passengers stranded.However,there is none relative theory reported,the paper presents a new method to solve the problem.By analyzing the ground weather data of Luogang Airport from year 2012,temperature,humidity and visibility was chosen to be vital factors for fog forecasting.Latter,the paper established several models to predict whether the fog would happen in three hours or not.Finally,the ground weather data of Luogang Airport from year 201 1 was used to test the model.The results indicate that the fog occurrence in the next three hours predicted by the method reached an accuracy at 91.3%,TS scored 0.84,which is a great prove that the method provided in the paper has a good future in airport fog short-term forecasting.