舰船装备备件配置需求量的评估方法

摘要

研究舰船装备备件准确评估问题,由于舰船装备备件受到使用方式、使用环境、使用者、储存条件等多个因素的影响,实际消耗数据具有不确定性,传统的方法并不适用于全部的舰船装备备件配置需求量的计算.在分析了舰船装备的需求规律和使用可靠性信息的基础上,建立了失效数的统计模型,将备件失效率分为工作失效率和非工作失效率,提出了备件实际消耗数据的失效率的Bayes评估方法,充分利用了装备的各类可靠性历史信息和专家经验信息,更适用于装备批量小或工作时见短的舰船装备.给出了舰船装备在满足一定保障度下的备件配置需求量的确定方法.经验证实例说明方法是可行的.%There are some factors influencing the spare demand of warship equipment, such as the self property, using modes, using surroundings, users, holding conditions and so on. The actual consumption quota is uncertain, and the existent menthods are not fit for all warship equipment. This paper gave a consumption quota model based on the analyses of the spare principle and reliability information structure. The spare failure rate was disparted by working and unworking. It gave a Bayesian evaluating method of spare failure rate. This method was based on the spare' s actual consumption quota and fully utilized the spare' s reliability information and experts' information. The method is more fit for warship equipment which has small batch and short working time. The paper also gives an example to show the method' s validity.