基于风险函数的建模与仿真原理

摘要

传统的观点认为建模与仿真是以相似性原理为基础,从系统论的观点来看建模与仿真可以表示为真实系统到仿真系统的同态映射.从仿真应用风险的出发,针对建模的正确性问题,利用概率论的观点对仿真应用风险进行了量化,提出了基于风险函数的建模与仿真原理,给出了风险函数的概念,即建模与仿真应用风险的量化；其次给出了风险函数的计算方法,即基于数学期望的计算方法；最后进行风险函数在建模与仿真和VV＆A的方面仿真验证.对于W&A的量化操作和可信度的评估,证明提出的风险函数的建模与仿真原理无论在理论和实际应用上具有指导意义.%Modeling and simulation were based on similarity principle in traditional opinion. In view of system theory, modeling and simulation could be formulated as a homomorphic mapping from real world system to simulation system. Based on risk of simulation application, this paper presented a modeling and simulation principle based on risk function which consisted of definition of risk function, computing method, guiding principle of modeling and simulation, and W&A. The proposed principle plays an important role in theory and application.