研究对复杂系统正确建模问题,在运用探索性分析方法解决复杂系统不确定性问题的过程中,探索性分析建模是重点和难点.为了提高探索性分析建模的效率,在分析相关方法的基础上,提出了模型组合的探索性分析方法的基本理论,设计了关于模型组合的探索性分析框架,确定了探索性分析框架的工作流程,给出了探索性分析模型表示及描述,设计了模型库的结构,实现了模型组合功能,并通过要素敏感性分析得到不确定性因素对系统整体的影响程度.提高了探索性分析建模的有效性和适应性,对复杂系统的研究具有一定的借鉴意义.%When Exploratory Analysis is applied to resolve the uncertain problems of complex systems, exploratory analysis modeling is very important and difficult as well. In order to enhance the efficiency of exploratory analysis modeling, based on the analysis of related methods, the basic theory of exploratory analysis based on model combination was proposed, the frame of exploratory analysis based on model combination was designed, the work flow of the frame of exploratory analysis was confirmed, the expression and description to exploratory analysis model was given, the structure of the model base was designed, the function of model combination was realized, and the influencing degree of uncertain factors for the whole system was acquired through factors sensitive analysis. The effectiveness and adaptability of exploratory analysis modeling were enhanced, which has referential significance for research on complex systems.
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