城市道路交通单向拥堵点预测分流仿真

摘要

In this paper,we present a diversion method for predicting traffic one-way congestion point in urban roads based on improved wavelet analysis.A topological structure of network is formed to describe congestion characteristics in urban roads.The decision threshold of traffic congestion is given.The factors influencing traffic congestion are obtained.In the predictable and controllable traffic conditions,the congestion correction equation is formed.It takes vehicle flows as change factors.Taking the capacity of single road as basic unit,information of traffic flow at one-way traffic congestion point is mapped.Thus,the state of congestion point in the next interval is predicted and diverted timely.Simulation results show that this method has high prediction accuracy and improves the management quality of public traffic road.%对城市道路交通单向拥堵点分流问题的预测,能够有效降低单向车辆拥挤带来的交通问题.对交通单向拥堵点的预测分流,需要组建车流量拥堵修正方程,映射出单向拥堵点的车流信息,完成拥堵点分流.传统方法获取拥堵点观测状态向量,给出单向拥堵点分流变化规律,但忽略了获得车流信息,导致预测分流效果不理想.提出基于改进小波分析的城市道路交通单向拥堵点预测分流方法.组建一个网络的拓扑结构来描述城市道路的拥堵特性,给出交通拥堵的判定阈值,得到影响道路交通拥塞的因子,计算出在可预测和可控制的交通状况下,组建以车流量为变化因子的拥堵修正方程,以单个路段容量为基本单位映射出单向拥堵点的车流信息,对下一时段拥堵点的状态进行预测和及时分流.仿真证明,该方法预测分流精度较高,提升了公共交通道路的管理质量.