地区太阳能辐射资源定量评估仿真

摘要

This article builds a model for quantitative evaluation for regional solar irradiation resource integrated with data of real-time solar irradiance and simulation data of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in area with sparse distribution of meteorological observing station.Firstly,our research integrated regional information of actual measurement weather with the NWP output product via a method combining NWP with data of regional actual measurement weather with minute order,then organized simulation product of shortwave radiation of the earth's surface incoming in the same geographical range outputted by NWP system as simulation yard and introduced singular value decomposition.Moreover,the research studied the coupling relationship between radiation monitoring field of actual surface observation and radiation simulation yard outputted by NWP system.Simulation results show that the method can use actual measurement weather data with minute order and NWP data to provide evaluation of reliability and stability for regional irradiation resource.%利用数值仿真与实测数据对地区太阳能辐射资源定量评估,能够对光伏、光热整体产业链的良性循环起到重要作用.传统方法通过实测气象数据的采集,分析太阳辐射波模拟场,但忽略了研究实际监测场和模拟监测场之间的耦合关系.提出了一种在气象测站分布稀疏地区,结合气象测站的实时太阳辐照度数据与数值天气预报仿真数据,建立地区太阳能辐射资源定量评估模型.采用NWP与区域分钟级实测气象数据相结合的方法,同时将区域性的实测气象信息融入NWP输出产品,将数值天气预报系统输出的同地理范围地表入射短波辐射仿真产品整理为模拟场,引入奇异值分解方法,进行实际地面观测的辐射监测场与数值天气预报系统输出的辐射模拟场耦合关系研究.完成区域地区太阳能辐射资源定量评估的方法.算法验证的案例表明,提出的方法可以利用分钟级实测气象数据和NWP数据,对区域辐射资源提供可靠性、稳定度评估.