公共建筑短期负荷预测仿真研究

摘要

Short-term load forecasting of public building allows operators to timely develop optimal scheduling strategy for energy supply system which achieves the purpose of energy saving.In order to improve computational speed while ensuring the accuracy of load forecasting,a short-term load forecasting method using similar day method based on improved entropy method is proposed.The improved entropy method was used in the feature point weight and the similar day weight determination separately so that the information contained in the information entropy of evaluation index in entropy weight method was fully exploited.It is beneficial to select a similar day with high similarity and improve the accuracy of load forecasting.A case study on an office building in Beijing shows that the proposed method has higher accuracy and efficiency than traditional forecasting method.%对公共建筑进行短期负荷预测可以让运行人员及时制定供能系统的最佳调度策略,达到节能的目的.传统的公共建筑短期负荷预测方法存在运算速度慢的弊端.为了在保证负荷预测精度的同时提高运算速度,提出了一种基于改进熵权法的公共建筑短期负荷预测方法,将改进熵权法分别用于特征点权重和相似日权重的选取,充分挖掘熵权法中评价指标信息熵所包含的信息,得到更恰当的权重系数,从而选出相似度高的相似日,用以提高负荷预测精度.以北京市某写字楼负荷为例进行验证分析,结果表明上述方法相比于传统的预测方法具有更高的预测精度和运算速度.