空中交通流微观尾随时距分布模型

摘要

In order to construct the micro-air traffic flow model by analyzing the stochastic characteristics of air traffic,the time-distance distribution characteristics of airroute traffic flow and approach traffic flow in the terminal area were analyzed in the paper.First of all,insight into the aircraft operation space is flexible,explaining how to identify the following relationship between the aircrafts.Secondly,the headway distribution of the traffic flow in the airroute and terminal area was fitted and compared with the probability distribution function.The results show that the logarithmic normal distribution and the mixed distribution can be well fitted.In addition,two kinds of traffic flow states of the terminal area traffic flow were deduced by establishing the mixed distribution model and then distributed to the measured headway data,which can provide some reference for the traffic flow state identification and traffic condition evaluation.%为分析空中交通随机特性从而构建微观交通流模型,分析了航路单向交通流和终端区进场交通流航空器时距分布特性.针对空中交通航空器运行空间灵活的特点,对如何从空中交通流实测数据生成具有微观跟驰关系的航空器时距序列进行说明.其次,分别应用对多种概率密度分布函数拟合航路和终端区进场交通流的时距分布并对比拟合效果,结果表明对数正态分布和二元混合分布可以较好地拟合出航路和终端区进场交通流时距的分布特点.此外,本文通过建立二元分布模型,然后对实测时距数据进行分布拟合,反推出终端区交通流的两类交通流状态及其所占比例,这为交通流状态识别和交通运行状况评价提供了新思路.