利用灰色控制系统模型进行预测分析研究

摘要

在科学实验中，常利用最小二乘法对实验数据进行建模分析，而灰色控制系统模型为连续微分方程模型，可对观测数据发展变化进行全面的分析，作出长期的预测，并具有可控性、可观性，在系统分析与预测应用中适用性更广。文章介绍了灰色控制系统模型构建以及评价方法，并结合实例进行了仿真预测，验证了灰色控制系统模型应用于预测的可行性与精确性，而且随着样本数据增多，预测的精度随之提高。%The least square method is usually used for data processing in science experiment, and the grey control system model is controllable and observable, which is described by continuously differential equation and able to analyze sample data, and widely used for system analysis and forecasting. The paper describes the method of grey control system model building and evaluation. At the end, the computer simulation calculation is exemplified and the validity of the algorithm is verified. Moreover, the results show that if the sample data is more, the performance of the adopted method is better.