风电功率预测预报系统的设计与实现

摘要

Wind power accurate prediction is important to the reasonable allocate use of wind power,power grid stability,commercial operation and decision service etc.This paper takes advantage of wind power prediction software at home and abroad,researches on the wind power prediction work flow,a WINd Power Prediction(WINPOP) system which consisted of data acquisition,power prediction and precision analysis is designed.The paper introduces the designing idea,analyses the overall architecture and function module design,shows the main functions.At last,it gives the application example of the wind farms.The results of the test data indicate that WINPOP is reliable and the accuracy is above 85％.After using of the forecasting system,it can reduce rotating spare capacity,improve the utilization of wind power and ensure the safe and stable operation of power system.%风电功率的准确预测对风电的合理调配利用、电网稳定、商业运营、决策服务等方面有着重要的作用.本文借鉴国内外风电功率预测软件优点,研究风电场功率预测业务流程,设计一套集数据采集、功率预测、精度分析等功能为一体的风电功率预测预报系统(WINd Power Prediciton,WINPOP).本文介绍系统的设计思路,重点分析系统的技术架构和功能模块设计,阐明系统实现的关键技术,展示系统建成后的主要功能,并给出在风电场安装使用情况,结果表明,功率预测准确率达到85％以上.系统接入后能够减少旋转备用容量,提高风电利用率,保证电力系统的安全稳定运行.