多重不确定下针对ATO供应链的制造商预售策略

摘要

为研究制造商预售对供应链中各级成员的决策影响,针对按订单装配式的产品供应链,考虑其上游多个供应商不确定的零部件供应以及下游消费者价值的不确定性,比较分析了分散决策、集中决策和制造商在线预售策略3种模型对制造商和零售商各自的订单决策及期望利润的影响.通过对预售模型进行证明推导和数值仿真表明,制造商在线预售优于集中决策和分散决策,但会损害零售商的利益.零售商对预售的反应策略是反直觉的,预售折扣越大,随之预售量越大,零售商反而事后通过折扣来最大化期望利润;消费者价值的趋同性越小,零售商越有涨价的动机.%To research the influence of manufacturer advance selling on supply chain members' decisions,aiming at an assemble-to-order product supply chain,the components' random yielding of upstream multi-suppliers and downstream uncertain consumer value were considered.The influence of manufacturer and retailer's ordering decision and expected profits in three different models of disperse decision,centralized decision and manufacturer's online advance selling strategy was compared.Through deducing and simulating for advance selling model,the result showed that the advance selling was more optimal than centralized and dispersed decision,but was harmful to retailer's benefit.The retailer's reaction to advance selling was counterintuitive:the more discount of advance selling,the more quantity of advance selling,the more discount to maximize expected profit of retailer would be take after advance selling;the less homogeneous consumers,the more motive retailer had to rise price.