基于包容性检验和证据理论的短期负荷预测

摘要

In order to improve the forecasting accuracy,a short-term load forecasting model is proposed combined With encompassing tests and dempster-shafer theory.Firstly,some single models are used to forecast short-term load,then encompassing tests is used to choose the most suitable single models,finally the weights of the single models is decided by dempster-shafer theory to get the short-term power load combination forecasting result,and the simulation experiment is carried out to test the performance of the combination modelby short-term power load data.The simulation results show that,compared with other models,the proposed model can more accurately describe the changing trend of short-term load and improve the forecasting accuracy of short-term load,so the forecasting results can provide valuable reference for electric power planning.%为了提高短期负荷的预测精度,提出一种包容性检验和证据理论的短期负荷组合预测模型(ET-DS).分别采用多个单一模型对短期负荷进行预测,采用包容性检验选择最合适的单一模型,利用证据理论获取单一模型的权值,实现短期负荷的组合预测,并采用短期负荷数据对模型性能进行仿真测试.仿真结果表明,相对单一模型及其它组合模型,ET-DS组合模型更加准确刻画了短期负荷变化趋势,提高了短期负荷预测精度,预测结果可为电力规划提供有价值参考意见.