北极航线地缘政治安全指数研究

摘要

According to the significance of arctic route geopolitical safety index, it is considered that the geopolitical safety index evaluation should be made based on the combination of quantitative and qualitative evaluation models.To achieve this, a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive arctic route geopolitical index evaluation method is constructed.The selection of evaluating indicators,the establishment of index system and the determination of index weight are researched for the model.This model is applied to the geopolitical safety index on Arctic route is on a "third class" level.In other words,the index faces the transition period from the relative safe one to an unsafe one,and it gradually moves away from the "third class" level to the "second class" level.This study provides a tool and methods to gain more benefits on arctic route for our country.%在提出北极航线地缘政治安全指数研究重要性的基础上,认为对于北极航线地缘政治安全指数研究,宜采用定量和定性相结合的组合评价方法.据此构建了基于多级模糊综合评价方法的北极航线地缘政治安全指数评价模型,从评价指标选取、指标体系建立、指标权重分析等工作入手,对北极航线地缘政治安全指数进行研究,并使用多级模糊综合评价方法进行了评价分析.通过分析,得到了北极航线地缘政治安全指数处在“第三级”水平上的结论.也就是说,北极航线地缘政治安全现在面临着从相对安全向不安全的过渡期.而且距离第二级很接近,正在逐渐脱离第三安全级.希望能够为我国的北极及北极航线权益争取提供全面认识和有益帮助.