非精确信息下基于证据理论的融资策略分析

摘要

由于市场环境的复杂性,企业在选择融资业务时所获取的信息往往表现为非精确性信息,因此难以做出有效的决策.针对此问题,基于D-S证-据理论提出了一种定量化的决策模型.将不同类型的非精确信息转化为D-S证据理论的焦元表示,以不同融资业务下企业利润的差额为目标函数,根据证据推理,利用信任函数和似然函数构造了目标函数的上下界概率分布,并据此给出企业融资行为的决策依据.实例仿真表明,根据该模型的计算结果,企业可以很直观地做出最佳融资方式的选择.%Because of the complexity in market, there is much imprecise information in selecting financing business for an enterprise,thus hard to make an effective decision.To solve this problem,a quantitative decision making model based on D-S evidence theory is proposed.In this model, different types of information are translated into focal elements in D-S evidence theory.Take profit difference between different financing businesses as the object function .based on evidence reasoning, lower and upper probability distributions of object function are constructed with belief and plausibility functions, thus provide the decision-making basis for the two measures.The simulation results show that, best selection within two financing businesses can be made based on the calculation results of proposed decision model.