建筑技术创新风险的贝叶斯网络模型分析--以绿色建筑技术创新项目为例

摘要

传统的计算方法难以对建筑技术创新风险进行定量分析。通过专家先验知识与问卷调查数据相结合，可以建立建筑技术创新风险评估的贝叶斯信念网络模型。采用NETICA软件拟合样本数据，得到网络模型各个节点间的条件概率分布。在某绿色建筑技术创新项目中应用结果表明贝叶斯网络模型能够比较准确地实现对建筑技术创新风险的定量预测，与工程实际情况对比具有较好的符合性。%Risk assessment of construction technology innovation is an unresolved problem for the traditional calculation method. This paper describes how Bayesian network is applied to quantifying the probability of construction technology innovation risks. Based on the review of relevant literature and survey, a Bayesian network model is constructed to risk assessment of construction technology innovation. Through using the NETICA software to fit the data samples of ques-tionnaire investigation, it gets the probability density of most nodes. The validity of the proposed model is tested by using a realistic case study with high compliance at last.