系统动力学仿真在互联网产业创新中的应用

摘要

This paper builds a dynamics model of the innovation system of Internet industry, draws its cause-effect dia-grams and flow charts, and in the simulation, it analyzes the relationship among these main bodies. Based on the system simulation, the average relative error of the model simulation results is around 2%through the comparison, which can be well applied in the research of Internet industry innovation. It has been found the modification of financial policies poses obvious influences on the Internet industry. Thus, a nation is supposed to encourage its financial institutions inclining to the R&D of enterprises, enabling the financial policy better support the innovation of Internet industry. The impact from the human resource policy is relatively subtle, indicating the unreasonable structure of scientific and research personnel, and the fact that R&D expenditure is insufficient to meet the innovative demands.%运用系统动力学方法，构建了互联网产业创新系统动力学模型，建立了系统的因果关系图和系统流程图，对互联网产业创新各个主体之间的关系进行了仿真分析。从系统仿真结果看，通过拟合度对比，得出该模型仿真结果的平均相对误差在2%左右，其表现稳定性能够较好地应用于互联网产业创新研究。金融政策的调整对互联网产业呈现明显的同向影响，国家应该鼓励金融机构向企业研发投入倾斜，金融政策应更好地服务于互联网产业创新；人才政策对当前一个时期互联网产业创新的影响相对较为微弱，这也反映出我国研究人员结构不够合理，研发经费支出难以满足创新需求。