基于DEMATEL和VIKOR的服务外包风险评估

摘要

服务外包风险评估是企业供应商管理的重要依据。传统风险评估方法FMEA没有考虑风险模式间的相互影响关系，模糊DEMATEL方法用来分析风险模式的净影响度，进而修正其初始评估的严重度。针对传统FMEA方法将风险因子简单相乘的缺陷，采用模糊VIKOR方法对风险模式的严重度、发生频率和难检度进行综合评估。传统模糊VIKOR计算过程中需要进行模糊数的反模糊化处理，造成信息的损失，相对偏好关系分析引入模糊VIKOR计算解决这一问题。以某公司服务外包风险评估为例，验证了所提方法的有效性。%Risk assessment of service outsourcing is an important basis for the management of enterprise supplier management. FMEA which is the traditional risk assessment method does not consider the mutual influence relationships among risk models. The fuzzy DEMATEL method is used to analyse the net influence degrees of risk modes, then these degrees are used to revise the initial assessed severity of risk models. To deal with the problem that traditional FMEA method deals with risk factors by simple multiplication, the fuzzy VIKOR method is used to evaluate the severity, frequency and detection of the risk model. The process of the traditional fuzzy VIKOR calculation needs to deal with the defuzzification of fuzzy numbers, and the condition causes the loss of information. The relative preference relation is introduced into fuzzy VIKOR to solve this problem. Finally, a case study of risk assessment for a service outsourcing enterprise is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.