基于云模型和灰关联的政府投资项目优选决策--以非营利性政府投资项目为研究对象

摘要

Due to the lack of quantitative index and decision-making method, there is blindness and randomness when government departments make multi-project priority decision, resulting in low efficiency of government investment projects, intensified social conflicts, undermining the government’s social image. According to the characteristics of the non-profit government investment projects, it establishes the index system based on the preferred decision-making benefit-risk perspec-tive multi-project, and the decision models of multi project selection based on cloud-model and gray correlation method, by comparing the benefits and risks of each project, provides decision support for government departments to select the maximum benefit and minimum risk projects priority investment and construct. Application example shows that the decision-making index system and decision model can effectively predict the risks and benefits, scientifically and reasonably deter-mine the investment order, improve the decision-making level of government investment projects, provide decision-profit guar-antee for the government investment projects successful implementation.%因缺少科学的量化指标和决策方法，政府部门在多项目优选决策方面，存在盲目性和随意性，致使政府投资项目效率低下，社会矛盾激化，政府社会形象受损。针对非营利性政府投资项目的特性，建立了基于效益和风险视角的多项目优选决策指标体系和基于云模型和灰关联法的多项目优选决策模型，对比各项目的效益风险，为政府部门优选效益最大、风险最小的项目优先投资建设提供决策支持。实例应用表明：该决策指标体系和决策模型能有效地对风险和效益进行预测，科学合理地确定投资顺序，可提高政府投资项目的决策水平，为非营利性政府投资项目的顺利实施和运行提供决策保障。