基于蒙特卡洛仿真的设备维修周期建模与优化

摘要

针对具有三级维修机构保障的复杂设备,通过对设备使用维修流程分析,给出了设备整个使用寿命期内的使用与维修状态转移图,建立了设备整个使用寿命期内的维修周期与平均可用度关系模型.并应用蒙特卡洛仿真方法,结合算例分析得到了使平均可用度达到最大的最佳维修周期,说明了模型的适用性与灵敏性,可为设备维修决策提供依据.%Targeting at the complex equipment guaranteed by three-levels maintenance institution, it presented a switching chart of equipment application and maintenance condition transformationin a lifecycle by analyzing equipment application and maintenance flowing procedure. It also established the connection model between maintenance cycle and average availability in a lifecycle. Through appling Monte Carlo simulation method and analyzing an application case, the optimal maintenance cycle that can ensure the average availability is maximal was received, in which the applicability and sensitivity of the model are proved. This approach can be used for maintenance decision-making.