联络中心任务量平滑预测方法研究*

摘要

On the basis of analysis of feature of the seasonal exponential and the Holt‐Winters patterns ,the Holt‐Win‐ters method was improved for more precisely and efficiently forecasting tasks of contact center .By analyzing empirical re‐search of historical telephone data and comparing three forecast patterns based on the standards of four precision‐evaluation patterns'indices ,the results computed by improved Holt‐Winters method have least errors ,which shows that the improve‐ment is effective .%针对联络中心对高精度、高效率的任务量预测要求，分析了 Holt‐Winters模型和指数平滑季节模型的优缺点，进而改进了 Holt‐Winters模型的任务量预测方法。通过对历史话务数据的实证分析，以四种预测模型精度评价指标为检验标准，对三种预测模型进行了预测精度比较。最后经历史数据验证，改进的 Holt‐Winters模型具有更小的预测误差，因而改进是有效的。