This paper proposes an estimate model for estimating the software development process. This model estimate effort on the basis of the scale and complexity of the user stories,the development velocity is calculated according to team development ability and the varieties of negative and sudden factors which may encounter, use development velocity and effort to calculate the development time. This model will convenient for software project managers accurately estimate finish time at the beginning of the project, in order to increase productivity and credibility of the company in the industry.%提出一个评估模型用以估算软件生产过程的工作量。模型依据用户故事的规模及复杂度来预估工作量,根据团队开发能力以及开发过程可能遇到的多种负面和突发性因素计算开发速度,结合工作量和开发速度计算得到预计的开发时间,方便软件项目管理者在项目初期准确的估计完成时间,以便提高生产率以及在行业中的信誉度。
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