Aiming at reasonable forecasting the steel consumption demand in automobile manufacturing companies, we put forward a set of forecasting technologies suitable for automobile manufacturing companies with full consideration of the impact of past historical data in corresponding months and the data of recent months. The model realises the scientific utilisation of historical data and also reveals the development trends in specific time period at present, so it takes into account the influences of both seasons and policy volatility, and meliorates the rea-sonability and creditability of the forecasting result. Relevant model has been applied to production practice, and a corresponding " visualised tracking system for demand-driven automotive steel" has been developed as well. It effectively improves the fulfilment rates of customers' order , and greatly facilitates the arrangement of production schedule in corporations too. This frames a considerable economic benefit to the enterprises , and has promotional value in further application.%针对汽车制造企业钢材用量需求的合理预测问题,充分考虑到以往相应月份的历史数据和近期各月份数据的影响,建立一套适合于汽车制造企业的钢材实际需求预测技术,不但实现了对历史数据的科学利用,而且体现了当前特定时间段的发展趋势,最大程度地兼顾了季节和政策波动的影响,提高了预测结果的合理性和可信性.相关模型已经被推广应用到生产实践,开发出了相应的“可视化汽车用钢需求拉动跟踪系统”,不但有效地提高了客户订货满足率,且大大方便了企业对生产计划的编排,给企业创造了较大的经济效益,具有进一步推广应用的价值.
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